College football Week 13 betting nuggets

NCAAF

There are three games scheduled between ranked teams this week in college football. Two such contests are on Friday, and then there is the Iron Bowl on Saturday. Favorites are 15-7-1 against the spread (ATS) in ranked matchups this season, so that is worth keeping in mind

Here are some more tidbits to help you through the weekend of games.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.


Friday’s games

No. 13 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 17 Texas Longhorns (-1, 57), noon ET on ABC

• Iowa State is 0-4 ATS against Texas under Matt Campbell.

• In five seasons under Campbell, Iowa State is 21-9 ATS as an underdog (eight outright wins), the eighth-best record among FBS teams over that span (third-best among teams with at least 20 games as an underdog in that span behind Eastern Michigan, at 25-9, and Fresno State, at 18-7-1).

• Iowa State is 11-4 ATS against AP-ranked teams over the past four seasons, with a 7-8 outright record.

• Texas has gone under the total in 16 of 21 games in November or later over the past five seasons (one push); the 80% under percentage is the highest among FBS teams in that span.

• Texas is 1-3-1 ATS as a favorite this season (0-3-1 in past four games).

Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 24 Iowa Hawkeyes (-13.5, 53), 1 p.m. ET on Fox

• Iowa has covered in its past three games; the team hasn’t covered in four consecutive games since a five-game streak spanning the 2017 and 2018 seasons. It hasn’t covered in four straight games in a single season since the final four games of the 2004 season.

• Iowa is 15-8 ATS as a favorite in its past 23 such games dating back to the 2017 season.

• Nebraska has lost 18 straight games outright as a double-digit underdog (most recent victory: 2005 Alamo Bowl vs. No. 20 Michigan as 10.5-point underdog); 7-11 ATS as double-digit underdog since start of 2006 season (0-3 in past three).

• Nebraska is 1-6 ATS on the road over the past two seasons (tied for the fourth-worst cover percentage in that time).

No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5, 67.5) at No. 19 North Carolina Tar Heels, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC

• Notre Dame is 9-5-1 ATS in games as a road favorite over the past four seasons.

• Notre Dame has won its past 10 games outright as a road favorite (most recent loss: November 2017, -3 vs. Stanford).

• Notre Dame is 1-4 outright and ATS as a road favorite of 6 or fewer points over the past eight seasons (only win was September 2017, -3.5 at Michigan State).

• North Carolina is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog in the current Mack Brown era, beating Miami as a 4.5-point underdog and losing by one to Clemson as a 27.5-point underdog.

• North Carolina is 3-0 ATS vs. ranked teams in the current Mack Brown era.

• North Carolina’s past four games have gone over the total (combined 86.5 PPG in those games); it hasn’t had five straight games go over since the 2003 season.

No. 15 Oregon Ducks (-14, 64) at Oregon State Beavers, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

• Oregon is 21-9-1 ATS as a road favorite over the past 10 seasons, tied for the fourth-most wins over that span among all teams.

• Oregon is 6-3-1 ATS in its past 10 meetings as a double-digit favorite against Oregon State.

• Oregon is 5-1 ATS in its past six meetings vs. Oregon State after going 1-8 ATS against the Beavers in the previous nine meetings.

• Oregon State is 10-3 ATS as an underdog (5-8 outright) over the past two seasons, fifth best among Power 5 teams.

• Oregon State is 9-3 ATS (5-7 outright) in conference play over the past two seasons, second best in the Pac-12 (behind Utah, 8-2) and fourth-best among all teams.

Saturday’s games

No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5, 70.5) at Illinois Fighting Illini, noon ET on Fox Sports 1

• Over the past two seasons, Ohio State is 5-1 ATS as a road favorite, and Illinois is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.

• Ohio State is 35-0 outright in games as a road favorite of 21 points or more since the 1978 FBS/FCS split and 22-12-1 ATS in those games; 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS in such games vs. Illinois in that time (did not cover in past two).

• Ohio State is 11-5 ATS in its past 16 games as a favorite (2-8 ATS in previous 10).

• Ohio State is 3-5 in its past eight games vs. conference foes (including last season’s Big Ten championship game) after covering its previous seven games vs. Big Ten teams.

• This would be the fifth Ohio State game with a total over 70 since 2000 (the previous four all went over); this would be the third such Illinois game in that time, and both of those games went over.

• Illinois has covered in nine of its past 10 games vs. top-five-ranked teams (two outright wins), the best ATS record by teams with more than five games vs. top-five teams since 2000.

Kentucky Wildcats at No. 6 Florida Gators (-23.5, 61), noon ET on ESPN

• Florida has covered in eight of its past nine games as a home favorite, including a 7-1 ATS mark over the past two seasons (did not cover in its previous such game, vs. Vanderbilt last week).

• Florida is 6-1 ATS as a favorite of at least 20 points over the past four seasons

• Kentucky has covered in its past three meetings with Florida after going 1-9 ATS in the previous 10 meetings.

• Kentucky is 11-4 ATS against ranked teams since the start of the 2015 season, the third-best mark among teams (minimum 10 games) behind Wake Forest (13-4) and Purdue (12-4).

• Eighteen of Kentucky’s 24 conference games over the past three seasons have gone under the total.

Maryland Terrapins at No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers (-11.5, 62.5), noon ET on ESPN2

• The past five meetings between these teams have gone over by an average of 15.3 PPG.

• Indiana is 5-0 ATS this season (best in FBS).

• Indiana has covered in four straight games as a double-digit favorite and has outright wins in 34 of its last 35 games as a double-digit favorite (only loss: Sept. 2013 vs. Navy).

• Maryland is seeking to be the second team since the 1978 FBS/FCS split to win three straight games as a double-digit underdog (2006 Arizona).

• Maryland is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games against ranked conference opponents dating back to 2015.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 23 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-11, 55), Noon ET on FOX

• Oklahoma State has failed to cover in its last four meetings with Texas Tech after going 6-1 ATS in previous seven meetings; last failed to cover in five straight meetings between schools from 2000-04 (Mike Gundy hired as team’s coach in 2005).

• Oklahoma State has failed to cover in its last four games (0-3-1); last failed to cover in five straight games in 2014 season (0-6-1 stretch, including five straight ATS losses).

• Texas Tech defeated Oklahoma State as 9.5-point ‘dog in 2019 and 14.5-point ‘dog in 2018; prior to that, the Red Raiders had lost nine meetings vs. Oklahoma State outright.

• This would be the third game for Texas Tech this season with a total of 55 points or lower; they had three such games from 2012-19.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines (-2, 58.5), Noon ET on ABC

• These teams are a combined 1-9 ATS this season; Penn State is 0-5, Michigan is 1-4 (lost last four).

• Penn State is on its first five-game ATS losing streak since a five-game streak spanning the 2015-16 season; the Nittany Lions last had a six-game ATS losing streak over the 2010-11 seasons (seven straight).

• This is the first time Jim Harbaugh has faced an unranked opponent at home at Michigan and not been a double-digit favorite.

• Michigan is on its second ATS losing streak of at least four games over the last three seasons (seven straight over 2018-19 seasons).

• Michigan has covered in five of its last six games all-time vs. James Franklin (all with Franklin as Penn State’s head coach); 4-0 ATS in those games as a favorite.

• Four of the five meetings between Harbaugh and Franklin have gone over the total.

No. 20 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-17, 58.5) at Texas State Bobcats, 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+

• Coastal Carolina is 4-0 in games as road favorite since becoming an FBS team; Three of those wins were by more than 30 points.

• Coastal Carolina is 0-2 ATS and 1-1 outright in games against Texas State since moving to the Sun Belt Conference.

• Texas State is 4-1 ATS at home this season and 4-0 ATS as a home underdog (3-3 ATS on road); The Bobcats are the only team with four ATS wins as home underdog this season.

No. 22 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-24.5, 62.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

• Alabama under Nick Saban is 3-0 ATS when favored by at least 20 and 5-0-1 ATS when favored by at least 14 points against Auburn.

• Alabama is 4-1-1 ATS at home against Auburn under Saban.

• Alabama has covered four straight SEC games after going 4-7 ATS in its previous 11 SEC games.

• This is the sixth time in the last 15 seasons that Auburn has been an underdog of 20 or more. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in the previous five, losing all five outright by an average of 29.0 points. Three of those games were against Alabama (lost those games by an average of 36 points).

• In the last 10 seasons, teams favored by at least 20 points in ranked-vs.-ranked matchups are 12-6 ATS (0-1 this season). This season, teams favored by at least 10 points in ranked-vs.-ranked matchups are 6-1 ATS.

Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-24, 55), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

• Clemson is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games dating back to last season’s CFP National Championship game. Prior to this run, Clemson had covered in 10 of its previous 12 games.

• Pittsburgh’s last six games have all gone over the total (only five of the team’s previous 20 games went over). That’s the longest streak by Pittsburgh since it had 11 straight games go over in the 2016 season

• Four straight Clemson games have also gone over; the over was 2-6-1 in Clemson’s previous nine games.

• Pittsburgh has covered in five straight games as an underdog of 25 or more points (regular-season games only, not including conference championship). That streak dates back to the 1997 season. Pittsburgh won its last game as an underdog of 25 or more in Dec. 2007, defeating No. 2 West Virginia as a 28.5-point ‘dog.

No. 8 Northwestern Wildcats (-13.5, 41.5) at Michigan State Spartans, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2

• Over the last 20 seasons, this would be the seventh time that Northwestern has been a double-digit road favorite. It is 5-1 ATS and 6-0 straight up in the previous six games. The only ATS loss came as a 20.5-point favorite at Rutgers (Illinois won by three).

• Northwestern is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games dating back to last season. The Wildcats are one of two teams this season with at least five games played without an ATS loss, the other being Indiana.

• This will be the second time that Michigan State has been an underdog vs. Northwestern since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. The other came in Sept. 2001, when 16th-ranked Northwestern beat 23rd-ranked Michigan State by one, but didn’t cover as a 7-point favorite. Since then, the Spartans have been a favorite in all 14 matchups, but they are 5-9 ATS in those games.

• Michigan State has covered in three straight and eight of its last 11 games as a double-digit home underdog. It won its last such game outright, in Nov. 2017 against Penn State (won by three as 10-point underdog).

Colorado Buffaloes at 18 USC Trojans (-12, 64), 3:30 ET on ABC

• USC’s three games this season have all gone under the total (by an average of 5.0 PPG) after its final six games of the 2019 season went over.

• USC is one of four FBS teams to not have a game over this season along with Northwestern (five games), Arizona State and Utah (one game each).

• USC is 3-11-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite over the last four seasons (won all 15 games outright). That’s the third-worst ATS record for a team as a double-digit favorite in that time (min. 10 games as double-digit favorite).

• Colorado is 10-25-1 ATS against ranked teams since 2010, the worst ATS record for teams with at least 20 such games in that time (28.6 cover percentage). The Buffaloes are 19-39-2 ATS (32.8 cover percentage) vs. ranked teams dating back to 2004, the worst mark among teams with at least 20 such games.

• This will be Colorado’s 10th consecutive game as an underdog; that’s the team’s longest streak since an 11-game stretch over the 2012-13 seasons.

LSU Tigers at No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-14.5, 64), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN

• LSU has covered in nine straight games vs. Texas A&M dating back to the 2010 season and in all eight meetings between the schools as SEC opponents. That’s the second-best ATS record for one team versus another since 2010, trailing only Arkansas State’s 10-0 ATS mark vs. UL Monroe.

• LSU has covered in four straight and is 11-2-1 ATS over the last four seasons vs. AP top-10 teams.

• This would be the third time in the last 20 seasons that LSU is an underdog of 14 points or more (outright losses vs. Alabama in 2017 and 2018, 1-1 ATS). It’s the first time the Tigers will be a 14-point or greater underdog against a team other than Alabama since Oct. 7, 2000, when they were +14.5 vs. Florida, a game they lost 41-9.

• This will be the second time over the last two seasons that LSU is an underdog in a game (2019 vs. Alabama). The Tigers are 7-1 ATS and 5-3 outright in games as an underdog since the start of the 2017 season. From 2014-16, LSU was 2-6 ATS as an underdog.

• Texas A&M is 16-8 in its last 24 games as a favorite, dating back to November 2017. This is the second time as SEC opponents that Texas A&M has been a favorite vs. LSU. The Aggies were 3-point favorites for their Nov. 2018 meeting, a 74-72 A&M win in a game in which the total was 47.5.

No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs (-21.5, 49) at South Carolina Gamecocks, 7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network

• Georgia is 8-14 ATS in games in which its at least a 20-point favorite, dating back to the start of the 2015 season. Georgia is 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 20-plus, failing to cover against Arkansas (-28, won by 27) and Mississippi State (-26.5, won by 7).

• Since the start of the 2017 season, South Carolina is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 20 points or more with one outright win, that coming last season against Georgia (+20.5).

• Home underdogs of at least 20 points are 11-7 ATS this season. That would be the best cover percentage (61.1%) for 20-point plus home dogs since the 2004 season (20-12-1, 62.5%).

• South Carolina has failed to cover in its last four games. It last went five games without covering in the 2007 season (0-4-1 ATS). It last lost five straight games ATS over the 2004-05 seasons (final six games under Lou Holtz and first under Steve Spurrier).

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